Published in Dwarka Express on 30.12.23
Could we stop the global warming? The answer for this simple question may not be easy to comprehend. Sun gives warmth from far above, while the core of the Earth far below is red hot at 6000℃. Besides, the volcanoes erupt often to keep the Earth still warmer. Thus, the naturally generated warmth enables our natural existence. But the global warming released due to green house gases, we talk about, is man-made and have long term implications on our very existence. Though in the past two hundred years of industrialization, the warming is too fast, in spite of the warning bells ringed by the scientific community, only in the last few decades the global leaders started talking about global warming seriously. The Paris Agreement on climate change that ended on 12th Dec 2015 was a milestone in revisiting the climate change paradigms. The UN was successful in bringing 196 countries to agree to aim at the goal of reducing the global average temperature increase to 2℃ above the pre-industrial levels and pursue the efforts to limit the increase to 1.5℃ by the end of this century. The 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) concluded on 13th Dec 23 at Dubai. The Heads of states, Environmental Scientists and experts assembled at Dubai to discuss the climate change. One wonders how an oil rich Dubai would keep up the spirit of COP 28 and its commitment to achieve Net Zero emission in 2050 by eliminating fossil fuels. Nevertheless, it must be appreciated that the draft agreement talks about increasing thrice the global efficiency in renewal energy production by 2050 and doubling twice the annual average rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030. These are some of the positive outcomes, though the voice is feeble at this stage. It needs to be seen how the member nations will reflect the concerns in letter and spirit. “We didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era, nut this outcome is the beginning of the end” said the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary at the closing session of COP 28.
In COP 27 held at Egypt, an issue was raised on India’s coal extraction levels. The global leaders wanted affirmative actions by India in the coal front. India depends on coal production mainly and stopping the same will be disastrous. India has therefore refused to bail out coal to achieve the Net Zero emissions in the recently concluded G20 summit. COP 28 has given some breather. Though there is no immediate pressure on India to stop coal production, India has to underline its strategies to fall in line with COP 28 decisions. India has to revisit its dependency on coal production and work on maximizing the renewable and non-conventional energy sources. Interestingly, the Global Stock Take (GST) of COP 28 is aiming at complete phasing out of coal by 2050 while the oil will be phased out by 60% and gas by 45%. The share of production of oil and gas and consumption happens in developed nations like US while the consumption of developing nations is negligible. Coal production in India in the global parlance is minimal. Among the fossil fuels, the major contributors of global warming are oil and gas, but it appears that COP 28 approach is softer to the major culprits. The third world countries are already in the grip of funding inadequacy to tackle the climate change while simultaneously facing disasters like cyclone and glacier melts due to climate change. We need to wait and see whether the mission of COP 28 will prove pragmatic.
Dr V Selvarajan 